布伦特原油：双重路径展望与霍尔木兹风险 – 德意志银行

布伦特原油：双重路径展望与霍尔木兹风险 – 德意志银行

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德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）及其同事概述了一个基线情景，即本月美伊达成协议重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，布伦特原油价格将在 2026 年第四季度回落至每桶 86 美元附近。

德意志银行的吉姆·里德及其同事概述了一个基线情景，即本月美伊达成协议，重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，使布伦特原油价格在2026年第四季度回落至每桶86美元。他们警告称，若海峡长期关闭，布伦特油价可能攀升至150美元，带来滞胀风险并导致欧洲经济衰退，尽管全球GDP仅略有下调。

霍尔木兹情景驱动原油前景

“在展望中，我们的基线预期是本月达成美伊协议，允许航运通过霍尔木兹海峡恢复，布伦特原油价格在第四季度回落至86美元/桶。”

“然而，如果霍尔木兹海峡经历长期关闭，布伦特油价将攀升至150美元/桶，打击全球增长并推动欧洲陷入衰退。”

“油市因此更加谨慎，布伦特原油价格在Tasnim报道后跳涨至最高97.79美元/桶，随后回落至94.98美元/桶。”

“在调整了7月至8月月度基准合约的换月因素后，这标志着近四周来前端合约最大单日涨幅（+4.24%）。”

（本文借助人工智能工具生成，并由编辑审核。）

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