美国:非农就业人数下降和参与率下滑 – UOB
大华银行全球经济与市场研究指出,美国就业市场在2月份出现重大挫折,非农就业人数下降92,000,为2025年10月以来的最大降幅。失业率上升至4.4%,劳动力数据经过大幅修订,参与率降至62.0%,进一步低于疫情前的高点,而工资增长加速至0.4%环比和3.8%同比。

大华银行全球经济与市场研究指出,美国就业市场在2月份出现重大挫折,非农就业人数下降92,000,为2025年10月以来的最大降幅。失业率上升至4.4%,劳动力数据经过大幅修订,参与率降至62.0%,进一步低于疫情前的高点,而工资增长加速至0.4%环比和3.8%同比。

广泛的减少和较低的参与率

“在1月份强劲开局后,2月份的非农就业人数(NFP)为-92,000(远低于彭博社中位数预期的55,000,且没有分析师预测负增长,最低预测为+10,000),为2025年10月以来的最大降幅(-140,000)。”

“另一个意外是失业率在2月份小幅上升至4.4%(1月份为4.3%,12月份为4.4%),进一步加剧了对2月份就业损失的悲观情绪。”

“因此,劳动力参与率在2月份小幅下降0.1个百分点至62.0%,但需要注意的是,1月份的参与率被大幅下调至62.1%(之前预估为62.5%),这主要是由于1月份劳动力数据的重大修订。而且现在距离疫情前的高点(63.3%)更远。”

“2月份的就业损失是广泛性的,私营部门受到的冲击最大,减少了86,000个职位,而政府职位减少了6,000个。”

“工资继续上涨,增速加快,2月份环比增长0.4%,同比增长3.8%(相比彭博社预估的环比增长0.3%,同比增长3.7%,以及1月份的环比增长0.4%,同比增长3.7%)。”

(本文由人工智能工具生成,并经过编辑审核。)

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