美元：地缘政治升级的挤压风险 – OCBC

美元：地缘政治升级的挤压风险 – OCBC

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华侨银行的Sim Moh Siong和Christopher Wong认为，持续的美元反弹条件仍然缺失，但大量的投机性空头使得该货币面临被挤压的风险

华侨银行的Sim Moh Siong和Christopher Wong认为，持续的美元反弹条件仍然缺失，但大量投机性空头使得该货币面临被挤压的风险。如果美国与伊朗的紧张局势升级以及油价飙升，避险需求和美国作为净能源出口国的地位可能会暂时推高美元，尽管特朗普总统被认为不太可能在中期选举前允许不稳定的升级。

头寸使美元面临飙升风险

"虽然持续的美元反弹条件仍然缺乏，但头寸创造了挤压风险。"

"根据CFTC数据，美元空头严重，避险需求和美国作为净能源出口国的地位可能在美国与伊朗的紧张局势升级和油价飙升时暂时推高美元。"

"也就是说，特朗普总统不太可能允许在中期选举前破坏美国金融市场的剧烈升级。"

"IEEPA失效的一个影响是，它可能降低美元的中期风险溢价，因为替代关税当局通常不那么自由裁量，使得快速的“关税开/关”波动不太可能。"

(本文由人工智能工具协助创建，并由编辑审核。)

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