石油：供应反应缓和地缘政治冲击 – 华侨银行

石油：供应反应缓和地缘政治冲击 – 华侨银行

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华侨银行的沈慕祥指出，伊朗袭击事件导致原油价格短暂飙升至120美元/桶附近，随后因美国官员表示供应支持以及以色列暗示加速缓和局势，油价有所回落。

华侨银行的沈慕祥指出，伊朗袭击导致原油价格短暂飙升至120美元/桶附近，随后因美国官员释放供应支持信号及以色列暗示加快降级而回落。该行上调了布伦特原油的前景，预计价格将在年中维持在100美元/桶附近，随后逐步回落至2027年初的70美元/桶，长期的航运中断带来供应上行风险。

因供应风险上调布伦特前景

“在伊朗对区域能源基础设施发动一系列袭击后，原油价格短暂跳升至120美元/桶附近。”

“我们上调了布伦特原油的前景，预计价格将在年中维持在100美元/桶左右，随后逐步回落至2027年初的70美元/桶。”

“长期的航运瘫痪迫使海湾产油国减产，增加了临时中断演变为更持久供应损失的风险。”

“即使采取缓解措施，可用的最高1000万桶/日的替代供应仍不足以覆盖持续的海峡关闭。”

（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，编辑审核。）

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