October US CPI pivotal to Fed policy path – Deutsche Bank

0.20% month-on-month is the forecast from Deutsche Bank’s US economists for both headline and core October US CPI. That would mark a sharp slowdown from September’s strong reading. As the final CPI release before the next Fed meeting, the report will draw market scrutiny for its implications for PCE inflation, they note. They also highlight the absence of a year-on-year figure because of last year’s shutdown.

Final CPI Reading Before Next Fed Meeting

"Last month’s CPI print for September was a very strong one, with the fastest monthly headline CPI in six months, at +0.65%."

"However, this time, our US economists expect inflation to have come down from its September pace, with both headline and core at +0.20% on the month."

"However, this report will be slightly unusual because we won’t get a year-on-year number for inflation."

"That’s because of last year’s government shutdown, which meant the October 2025 inflation level wasn’t produced, so there isn’t a number from last year to compare it to."

"Looking at the day ahead now, the main data highlight will be the US CPI print for October, and we’ll also get the NFIB’s small business optimism index for October."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)