100-SMA Near $86.80: WTI Price Forecast Remains Bearish Below Resistance

Below the overnight swing high, WTI struggles to extend its intraday recovery.
Further geopolitical developments remain in focus as traders defer new directional positions.
Technical indicators favour the bears, leaving prices more likely to move lower.

WTI has recovered above $86.00. Dip-buying lifted West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude Oil benchmark, during the first half of Thursday’s European session. Yet the recovery lacks follow-through. Prices remain below the previous day’s swing high as traders monitor developments in the Middle East crisis.

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A geopolitical risk premium continues to provide some support for crude prices. US forces reportedly launched a series of strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, while Tehran targeted ship navigation systems on the Omani island of Didamar at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari also said Tehran had closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz and would reopen it only on the orders of the leader of the revolution.

Hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough to end both the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war nevertheless persist among investors. Meanwhile, growing US crude stockpiles have heightened concerns over a possible supply glut, discouraging aggressive bullish positions in oil. US production reached a new record in the week ending 30 October. The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that US commercial crude inventories increased by about 9 million barrels in the week ending 6 November.

Below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.81, crude retains a bearish near-term technical outlook. Momentum readings support that assessment: the Relative Strength Index (14) is near the low-30s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below zero and its histogram is negative. These signals point to continued downward pressure. Immediate structural support, however, lies at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of $85.61.

Should that support give way decisively, the next Fibonacci support levels would be $81.26 (61.8%) and $75.06 (78.6%). A more distant structural floor sits near $67.17. Any advance first faces resistance at the 100-day SMA of $86.81, then the 38.2% retracement of $89.96. Only a sustained move above both would reduce the prevailing bearish bias and clear a route towards the 23.6% retracement at $95.34. For now, the cycle-high area near $104.04 remains a distant hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI: daily price chart

WTI Oil: key questions

WTI Oil: the essentials

Internationally traded WTI Oil takes its name from West Texas Intermediate. Alongside Brent and Dubai Crude, it is one of three major Crude Oil types. Its relatively low gravity earns it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content makes it “sweet”. This high-quality Oil is considered easy to refine. Produced in the United States, WTI is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. As an Oil-market benchmark, its price is regularly cited by the media.

WTI Oil: key price drivers

Supply and demand determine WTI Oil prices, as they do for other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand; weaker growth can have the reverse effect. On the supply side, political instability, war and sanctions can disrupt flows and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, the group of major Oil-producing countries, are another important influence. Currency movements also matter. Because Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, a weaker US Dollar can make WTI Crude Oil more affordable, while a stronger US Dollar can do the opposite.

WTI Oil: the impact of inventory data

Weekly inventory releases from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence WTI Oil prices by showing shifts in supply and demand. Falling stockpiles may signal stronger demand and lift prices. Rising inventories may indicate greater supply and weigh on prices. The API publishes its report each Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures are generally close: 75% of the time, they are within 1% of one another. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

WTI Oil: OPEC’s role in pricing

12 Oil-producing nations make up OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). At meetings held twice a year, members jointly set their production quotas, with decisions often affecting WTI Oil prices. Lower quotas can restrict supply and lift Oil prices; increased production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ group adds ten non-OPEC members, most notably Russia.