Stellar Price Forecast: XLM relief bounce fades as bearish undertone persists

Stellar price steadies at $0.16 on Thursday after recovering over 8% in the previous day.
Derivatives data supports a bearish sentiment, with short bets rising to the highest level over a month alongside falling open interest.
Despite the recent bounce, the broader technical structure remains under pressure, keeping the overall outlook tilted to the downside.

Stellar (XLM) is trading around $0.16 at the time of writing on Thursday after rebounding more than 8% in the previous day. Derivatives data paints a negative picture as XLM’s short bets hit a monthly high while Open Interest (OI) continues to decline. On the technical side, the primary trend remains bearish, capping the upside move.

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XLM’s derivatives data shows bearish bias

Stellar’s futures OI falls to $96.76 million on Thursday, having been steadily declining since early January. This drop in OI reflects waning investor participation and projects a bearish outlook.

Stellar open interest chart. Source: Coinglass

In addition, XLM's long-to-short ratio reads 0.68 on Thursday, the lowest level over a month. This ratio below 1 indicates bearish sentiment as traders are betting on the Stellar price to fall.

XLM long-to-short ratio chart. Source: Coinglass

Stellar Price Forecast: XLM's broader structure remains bearish

Stellar price is trading at $0.16 as of writing on Thursday. XLM continues to move below the declining 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered around $0.18–$0.21, keeping the broader structure under a bearish shadow despite the recent bounce from the $0.15 region.

A long-standing descending resistance trend line, broken lower near $0.18, still caps the upside bias while price holds beneath that area.

Momentum on the daily chart shows tentative improvement, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovering toward the mid-40s from oversold territory and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holding marginally above its signal line and near the zero line, suggesting fading downside pressure but not yet a decisive bullish shift.

Overall, the near-term tone remains cautiously neutral with a recovery bias as long as the $0.15 floor holds. Initial resistance emerges at $0.17, where recent intraday highs congregate, with a stronger barrier at $0.18 near the prior trendline break and just under the 50-day EMA.

A daily close above $0.18 would open the way toward $0.19, where the 100-day EMA begins to weigh in, and then toward $0.21 as a more distant cap within the broader downtrend.

On the downside, immediate support stands at $0.16, followed by $0.15 as a key level that underpins the emerging base. A break below $0.15 would negate the nascent recovery stance and expose the next bearish leg lower toward the $0.14 area.