Equities: AI fears revive Black Monday jitters - Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight renewed volatility in US equities as the anniversary of Black Monday coincides with a sharp late-Friday sell-off in the S&P 500, followed by a rebound in S&P and Nasdaq futures. They note concentrated weakness in AI-related names and semiconductors, with credit markets showing distress in that sector and key tech indices posting sizable weekly declines.

AI sector drives US equity stress

"39 years ago today we woke up to the origins of what would forever be known as Black Monday, where the Dow fell -22.6% on the day. It’s rare the anniversary falls on a Monday so it’s a more memorable one today. The late US trading session on Friday almost felt people were worried we'd get a repeat today as the S&P fell from flat just before the European close to -1.09% by the US one. However, this morning we are seeing a bounce with S&P (+0.79%) and Nasdaq (+1.29%) futures making up most of their late Friday losses. "

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"Clearly the main nervousness last week was around AI-related names, with credit markets starting to show some distress in that sector. The Philly semiconductor index was down -11.41% last week (-3.83% Friday), whilst the NASDAQ was down -4.48% (-2.14% Friday)."

"At the heart of the sell-off was CoreWeave, which was down -25.21% last week (-11.91% Friday), whilst their 5yr CDS was up +225bps on the week to 1128bps with their cash bonds trading at around a 15% yield. Meanwhile, Oracle’s share price was down -9.31% (-4.64% Friday), and their 5yr CDS was up +44bps on the week to 300bps. "

"Asia has started the week relatively calm with the KOSPI (+0.55%) and S&P/ASX 200 (+0.32%) both trading higher, while the CSI 300 (+0.09%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.16%) are just above flat. The Nikkei (-0.73%) is the region’s weakest performer, extending losses after falling -5.4% last week as technology stocks came under heavy pressure."

"Elsewhere, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index is down more than 5% to its lowest level in six years, as concerns over the potential MSCI downgrade we discussed on Friday continues to heighten fears of further foreign investor outflows. The index is down over -16% in these past two sessions."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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