AI Week of Reckoning! Memory Giants and the Big Four Tech Companies Report Earnings This Week

The entire AI value chain—from the "pickaxe makers" to the "gold miners"—will face a market test in the same week. Investors are less concerned about "how much they earned" and more focused on three fundamental questions: How long will HBM remain in short supply? How long can conventional memory price increases continue? And when will Big Tech's AI capital spending finally translate into profits?

SK Hynix (July 29)

SK Hynix is currently the undisputed global leader in the HBM market, holding approximately 58% market share. Market consensus expects second-quarter revenue of around KRW 84 trillion and operating profit of around KRW 64 trillion, representing nearly 600% year-over-year growth and setting a new company record. Operating margin is expected to improve from 72% in the first quarter to between 75% and 77%.

Visible Alpha's forecast further breaks down the numbers: SK Hynix's second-quarter revenue is expected to increase 260% year-over-year to US$52 billion, with the DRAM business contributing an estimated US$40.4 billion (+265% YoY) and the NAND flash business contributing US$13.1 billion (+330% YoY). HBM revenue is expected to rise 32% to US$6.1 billion.

The market's focus is on three key areas: whether HBM3E shipments met expectations, the mass production progress and customer qualification status of HBM4, and whether long-term supply agreements have expanded. SK Hynix's CEO previously projected that the memory chip supply shortage would continue beyond 2030. Whether this outlook is supported by the earnings report and management guidance will directly influence market confidence in the long-term AI memory boom.

Samsung Electronics (July 30)

Samsung released its preliminary earnings on July 7: second-quarter revenue of approximately KRW 171 trillion (about US$116.6 billion) and operating profit of KRW 89.4 trillion (about US$58.4 billion), soaring 18-fold year-over-year and reaching a record quarterly high. However, despite the explosive preview, Samsung shares fell nearly 7% on the day of the announcement.

The full earnings report will need to answer several key questions: Where did the profits come from? How much did the HBM business contribute? Has Samsung narrowed its gap with SK Hynix in HBM4? Analysts expect that AI-related orders will continue to improve foundry utilization rates, while stronger HBM4 demand will support further profit growth in the second half of the year.

Microsoft (July 29)

Microsoft is the company furthest ahead in the AI spending race. The market expects fourth-quarter revenue of approximately US$87.4 billion, up 14.3% year-over-year, with earnings per share of US$4.21. Azure's constant currency growth guidance stands at 39% to 40%, while analysts believe actual growth could reach 40% to 41%.

However, the other side of the story is even more important. Microsoft's third-quarter capital expenditure reached US$31.9 billion, with fourth-quarter spending expected to exceed US$40 billion. Calendar year 2026 capital expenditure is projected to reach approximately US$190 billion, significantly squeezing full-year free cash flow.

Bank of America analyst Tal Liani put it bluntly: Azure must achieve or exceed 39% to 40% annual growth for the stock to recover. Failure to do so "could intensify market concerns about AI investment returns." Microsoft's current forward P/E ratio is around 22.7x, well below its five-year average of 29x. Trading at such a discount is itself a warning sign.

Goldman Sachs highlighted Microsoft's dilemma: the more it spends on capital expenditure, the more investors will ask whether the additional computing power can generate cloud revenue, AI subscriptions, and higher-margin businesses, rather than simply creating heavier depreciation and cash flow pressure. Copilot paid users exceeded 20 million last quarter, but the annual revenue generated by those 20 million users still pales in comparison to US$190 billion in capital expenditure.

Meta (July 29)

Meta reported first-quarter revenue of US$56.3 billion, up 33% year-over-year, with ad impressions increasing 19% and average ad prices rising 12%. The company guided second-quarter revenue to between US$58 billion and US$61 billion.

What truly concerns the market is capital expenditure. Meta has raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance from US$115 billion–135 billion to US$125 billion–145 billion. The company holds US$81.2 billion in cash and marketable securities, providing a financial cushion, but this also means annual capital expenditure exceeding US$100 billion must largely be funded by its own cash flow.

Meta CFO Susan Li's comments deserve close attention. She stated that the company "maintains flexibility and could slow deployment or reduce spending in future years if returns are lower than expected." Companies with full confidence in investment returns typically do not emphasize in advance that they "can slow down." The statement itself reflects management's clear awareness of the uncertainty surrounding AI investment returns.

Meta shares have fallen approximately 9.7% year-to-date in 2026 and trade at around 18x forward earnings, compared with Alphabet's 25x valuation. The discount reflects investor skepticism over the returns on AI spending.

Amazon (July 30)

Amazon has guided second-quarter revenue to between US$194 billion and US$199 billion, with operating profit of US$20 billion to US$24 billion. Market expectations for earnings per share are around US$1.81 to US$1.82.

Amazon recently raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to as much as US$205 billion and completed a US$25 billion bond issuance last week. AWS generated first-quarter revenue of US$37.6 billion, up 28% year-over-year, marking its fastest growth in 15 quarters, while operating margin reached 37.7%.

However, the gap between AWS revenue growth (28%) and capital expenditure growth (US$205 billion) continues to widen. AWS's annualized revenue is approximately US$150 billion, while 2026 capital expenditure alone exceeds US$200 billion. Investment has now surpassed the scale of its current annual revenue.

Analysts are asking a straightforward question: Can AWS's renewed acceleration justify this wave of capital spending? That question is expected to dominate Amazon's earnings conference call on July 30.

Apple (July 30)

Apple is the only one among the four that has largely avoided the AI infrastructure arms race. The market expects third-quarter revenue of approximately US$108 billion to US$109 billion, representing around 16% year-over-year growth, earnings per share of US$1.87 to US$1.89, and gross margin of 47.5% to 48.5%.

Rather than building its own data centers, Apple has chosen to obtain AI capabilities through partnerships. This strategy has allowed the company to avoid hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditure. However, rising memory chip prices are putting pressure on hardware margins. Bank of America estimates that higher upstream component costs reduced Apple's hardware gross margin by approximately 190 basis points quarter-over-quarter in the June quarter. Apple's challenge is not whether to spend aggressively on AI, but that even without doing so, it cannot escape rising costs.

July 30 will also mark Tim Cook's final earnings conference call as CEO. The meeting carries special significance, serving both as a summary of Cook's tenure and as a transition to incoming CEO John Ternus, who will inherit an Apple that has deliberately chosen not to participate in the AI infrastructure arms race.

This week's concentrated earnings releases are essentially a system-wide stress test for the AI industry. The earnings from the three memory giants will determine whether the "pickaxe makers" continue to enjoy strong demand, while the results from the four technology giants will reveal whether the "gold miners" are beginning to generate returns from their massive investments. Together, these two sets of earnings will shape the direction of the AI narrative for the second half of 2026.