• EUR/USD kicks off the new week on a weaker note as the global flight to safety boosts the USD.
• The downfall confirms a breakdown through the trading range support and favors bearish traders.
• Any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity and is likely to remain capped.

The EUR/USD pair opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new week as the US-Iran war-led global flight to safety boosts the US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and manage to hold above mid-1.1700s during the Asian session.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair seems to have confirmed a breakdown through the lower boundary of an over one-week-old trading range. This comes on top of the recent repeated failures near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) support-turned-resistance and backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreats to 39 and reinforces growing downside momentum from mid-range levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, 9) has rolled over toward the zero line, with the MACD line now marginally negative, suggesting fading prior bullish pressure and increasing risk of further weakness.

Immediate resistance emerges at 1.1800, where recent intraday highs converge, ahead of the 1.1828 area defined by the 100-period SMA, which acts as a stronger barrier on any recovery attempt. A sustained break above 1.1828 would be needed to neutralize the current bearish tone and open the way toward 1.1860.

On the downside, initial support rests at 1.1750, with a decisive move below exposing the next support around 1.1720. If sellers extend control beneath 1.1720, the focus would shift toward 1.1680 as a deeper bearish target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart