• The RBA hiked to 4.10% in March, with markets pricing a 68% chance of another increase in May.
• The Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75%, with Chair Powell noting inflation is not falling as quickly as hoped.
• Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls lands on Good Friday, with consensus at 55K versus a prior print of -92K.

AUD/USD slipped 0.42% on Monday, settling near 0.6850 and extending its losing streak to five consecutive sessions. The pair has now fallen over 300 pips from its year-to-date high close to 0.7190 set in mid-March, with the pace of selling accelerating through late March. Monday's candle printed a wide range between about 0.6870 and 0.6830, closing near the middle of the day's range with little conviction from either side.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its March meeting in a narrow 5-4 split decision, the second consecutive increase. Tuesday's release of the RBA meeting minutes will be closely watched for signals on the Board's appetite for a third straight hike in May. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent warned last week that a prolonged conflict-driven supply shock from the Middle East war could lift both inflation and long-term expectations, potentially requiring a more restrictive policy stance.

On the US Dollar side, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% at its March meeting, with the updated dot plot still pointing to one cut this year. Chair Powell noted that inflation is not coming down as quickly as hoped, while the implications of the Middle East conflict remain uncertain. This week brings a dense calendar, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, where consensus sits at 55K after the prior month's negative print. Friday is also Good Friday in both Australia and the US, which will thin liquidity around a potentially volatile release.

AUD/USD 5-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the 5-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6846. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the gently declining 200-period exponential moving average near 0.6857, keeping intraday rallies capped under a well-defined dynamic barrier. Price action has been grinding lower in tight ranges, while Stochastic RSI remains subdued in the lower half of its scale despite a modest uptick, indicating weak upside momentum and favoring further downside probes while below the 0.6860 area.

Immediate resistance emerges at the 0.6855–0.6860 band, where recent intraday highs converge with the 200-period EMA, and a break above this zone would be needed to ease current pressure and open 0.6875 next. On the downside, initial support aligns at today’s 0.6844 low, followed by 0.6835, with a decisive move through these levels exposing 0.6825 as the next bearish objective.

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6848. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price extends below the 50-day exponential moving average, which has started to roll over after flattening near 0.70, signaling fading upside momentum. The pair remains comfortably above the 200-day EMA around 0.67, so the broader trend backdrop stays positive, but the short-term pullback dominates while the Stochastic RSI holds in the lower band, confirming subdued buying pressure.

Initial resistance stands at the 0.6920/0.6950 area, where recent highs converge with the descending 50-day EMA, and a daily close above this zone would be needed to neutralize the current downside bias. Beyond that, 0.7050 is the next resistance to watch ahead of 0.7120. On the downside, immediate support aligns near 0.6800, with a break exposing 0.6750, followed by the 200-day EMA region around 0.6735 as a more significant floor for the prevailing medium-term uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)