• AUD/USD strengthens despite an unexpected rise in the Australian Unemployment Rate.
• Strong job creation partly offsets signs of labor market weakening.
• The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance caps the pair’s upside potential.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7050 on Thursday, up 0.34% on the day, supported by the resilience of the Australian Dollar (AUD) following the release of Australia’s employment data.

Figures published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.3% in February from 4.1% in January, exceeding market expectations. This deterioration in labor market conditions could, in theory, weigh on the currency by reducing expectations of further monetary tightening. Money markets have already slightly adjusted their outlook, lowering the probability of a rate hike in May.

However, this apparent weakness is largely offset by strong job creation. The Australian economy added 48.9K jobs over the month, well above forecasts of 20.3K, highlighting still-solid underlying momentum. This mix of signals keeps uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy path elevated, although its relatively hawkish bias continues to support the Aussie.

The RBA also warned about external risks, particularly rising tensions in the Middle East, which could disrupt energy markets and increase risks to global growth. These factors may influence economic and monetary policy prospects in the coming months.

On the US side, a pause in the US Dollar’s (USD) recent rally provides additional support to the pair. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains a cautious stance, keeping rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range while emphasizing persistent inflation risks. Chair Jerome Powell stressed that further progress on inflation is needed before considering any rate cuts, reinforcing the higher-for-longer narrative.

In this context, any further US Dollar depreciation may remain limited, which could restrain AUD/USD’s upward momentum in the near term.