• Bitcoin steadies at $65,700 on Monday after recovering nearly 4% in the previous week.
• Risk-on sentiment boosted slightly following the announcement that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary peace deal.
• Despite the recovery, institutional demand remains weak, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs posting a fifth consecutive week of outflows.

Bitcoin (BTC) steadies above $65,700 at the time of writing on Monday, after recovering nearly 4% in the previous week. BTC recovery was boosted following Sunday’s news that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary peace deal, lifting the risk appetite. However, institutional demand continued to weaken, with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording the fifth consecutive week of outflows since mid-May. The Crypto King’s recovery could only be strengthened if institutional demand for BTC increases this week.

US-Iran preliminary peace deal boosts BTC recovery

The US and Iran reached a preliminary peace deal on Sunday, boosting risk-on sentiment across markets.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed Sunday that Tehran had finalized a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), saying all military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, would cease “immediately and permanently”, CNBC reported.

On the US front, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social, “I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade.”

Meanwhile, Pakistan Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif has stated in a post on X that the finalized MoU between the US and Iran will be signed this Friday in Switzerland.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said a more expansive agreement would be negotiated during a 60-day ceasefire period, including sanctions relief for Iran.

The fate of Iran’s nuclear program, another thorny issue, will also ⁠be addressed in those later talks, reported Reuters. 

The easing of geopolitical tensions boosted demand for risk assets, such as Bitcoin, which closed the week positive, with a 3.8% gain, and is hovering above $65,700 as of writing on Monday.

Institutional selling continues

Institutional demand continues to weaken. SoSoValue weekly data show that spot BTC ETFs recorded an outflow of $315.84 million last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of withdrawals, signaling weakening institutional demand and potentially leading to a price decline. If this trend continues, BTC could see further correction this week.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Waning downside momentum

Bitcoin price trades at $65,700 after recovering nearly 4% in the previous week. However, BTC maintains a bearish near-term bias as price remains well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and the previously broken ascending trendline. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has flipped positive and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers around 41, suggesting waning downside momentum, the dominant structure still points to a capped market under multiple layers of overhead resistance.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 50-day EMA near $70,704, followed by the 100-day EMA at about $73,412 and the former uptrend support-turned-resistance around $73,505, forming a dense supply zone. Above that, the 200-day EMA at roughly $79,490 comes next, followed by a more distant horizontal barrier at $84,410.

On the downside, the first notable support is the horizontal level at $64,004, where a break would reopen the path toward deeper corrective losses despite the current attempts to stabilize momentum.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)