ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that China’s March trade surplus dropped to a 13‑month low as exports slowed and imports surged, especially in tech-related categories. The bank expects higher energy prices to lift import values further, reducing the contribution from net exports and potentially weighing on China’s 1Q26 GDP, where its 4.7% forecast now looks vulnerable.

Surplus drop and import surge reshape outlook

"Thanks to continued strength in imports and a slowdown in exports in March, China's trade surplus fell to a 13-month low of $51.1bn. This is not only well below market expectations but also brings the 1Q26 trade surplus to just $264.3bn. In USD terms, this is down -2.5% YoY from 1Q25. In RMB terms, more relevant for the GDP considerations, this is an even steeper decline of -4.8% YoY."

"China's March trade surplus slowed to just $51.1bn, a 13-month low, as exports fell more than expected, while imports surged amid rising tech prices. We expect higher energy prices to feed into import prices in the months ahead."

"Higher energy prices will likely boost imports further in subsequent months."

"Higher imports will help assuage the concerns from China's trading partners, but would also cut the contribution of net exports to China's growth."

"With the drag from the US expected to ease—assuming no new tariff shocks, which cannot be fully ruled out—external demand should remain an important driver of growth this year."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)