• NZD/USD ends an eight-day winning streak and retreats from a six-month peak.
• The US Dollar rebounds slightly as investors position ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision.
• Firmer inflation data in New Zealand strengthen expectations of a potential tightening later this year.

NZD/USD halts its bullish momentum and trades around 0.6030 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.20% on the day. The pair corrects after reaching a six-month high at 0.6051 on Tuesday, as the US Dollar (USD) stages a modest rebound, with markets trimming short positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision scheduled for later in the day.

The Greenback recovers part of the ground lost in recent sessions, as investors turn more cautious ahead of the outcome of the Fed meeting. The US central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, following three consecutive cuts in 2025. Attention now shifts to the Fed’s communication and guidance on the future policy path, against a backdrop of ongoing debate over the institution’s independence and the succession of its Chair.

In the background, the “Sell America” narrative continues to weigh on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recently slid to multi-year lows, driven by concerns over US fiscal and trade policies, as well as speculation about potential direct currency intervention. Comments from the US President Donald Trump praising the current value of the US Dollar have failed to provide lasting pressure.

On the New Zealand side, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains underpinned by stronger domestic fundamentals, limiting the downside for the NZD/USD pair. Statistics New Zealand reported that annual inflation rose to 3.1% in the fourth quarter, above the central bank’s comfort zone. This upside surprise has revived expectations of a potential rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) later this year, offering structural support to the currency.

Investors are now awaiting the release of New Zealand’s December trade balance data on Thursday, along with activity indicators from China, New Zealand’s key trading partner. In the near term, NZD/USD price action remains primarily driven by US Dollar dynamics and expectations surrounding the Fed’s monetary policy.