• USD/CHF edges lower but downside remains limited amid US-Iran tensions and Oil-driven inflation risks.
• Technically, USD/CHF is testing the 100-day SMA after failing to hold above 0.8000.
• Momentum indicators weaken, with RSI below 50 and MACD turning negative.

USD/CHF edges lower on Monday but lacks follow-through selling as escalating US-Iran tensions and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer, driven by rising Oil prices, help limit downside in the US Dollar (USD). At the same time, the Swiss Franc (CHF) struggles to attract strong demand as the Swiss National Bank’s readiness to act against excessive currency strength keeps investors cautious.

At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading around 0.7876, down 0.13% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering near 98.78 after opening the week with a gap higher toward the 99.00 level.

On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump has ordered a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports after US-Iran talks over the weekend concluded without a breakthrough, raising concerns about a prolonged conflict. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that any military vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz would be seen as a ceasefire breach and could face a strong response.

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF is trading within an upward-sloping parallel channel on the daily chart, with price now hovering near the lower boundary, which closely aligns with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7883. This increases the risk of a breakdown after buyers failed to sustain gains above the 0.8000 psychological level.

A decisive break below the channel support or the 100-day SMA could expose the 50-day SMA at 0.7827 as the next support, followed by the March 10 low near 0.7748.

On the upside, the 200-day SMA at 0.7944 acts as immediate resistance, ahead of the upper boundary of the channel near the 0.8000 psychological mark. A sustained move above 0.8000 is needed to confirm renewed bullish momentum.

Momentum indicators suggest fading upside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the 50 mark, indicating weakening bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning lower, with the histogram dipping into negative territory hinting that bearish momentum is beginning to build.