USD/CHF struggle near 0.7950 as traders expect more than one Fed rate cut in 2026

BÀI VIẾT PHỔ BIẾN

The USD/CHF pair remains fragile near 0.7950 during the European trading session on Friday. The Swiss Franc pair is under pressure as traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver at least two interest rate cuts in 2026.

USD/CHF stays under pressure as Fed dovish expectations for 2026 remain a major drag on the US Dollar.
This week, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75%, while the SNB held them steady at 0%.
Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.76%	-0.48%	0.33%	-0.41%	-0.40%	-0.66%	-1.12%
EUR	0.76%		0.32%	1.17%	0.40%	0.42%	0.15%	-0.32%
GBP	0.48%	-0.32%		0.86%	0.08%	0.09%	-0.18%	-0.64%
JPY	-0.33%	-1.17%	-0.86%		-0.73%	-0.71%	-0.97%	-1.43%
CAD	0.41%	-0.40%	-0.08%	0.73%		0.02%	-0.25%	-0.72%
AUD	0.40%	-0.42%	-0.09%	0.71%	-0.02%		-0.27%	-0.73%
NZD	0.66%	-0.15%	0.18%	0.97%	0.25%	0.27%		-0.46%
CHF	1.12%	0.32%	0.64%	1.43%	0.72%	0.73%	0.46%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 58% chance that the Fed will cut borrowing rates at least two times through October 2026. Contrary to market expectations, the Fed’s dot plot showed in the policy announcement on Wednesday that officials see the Federal Fund Rate sliding to 3.4% by the end of 2026, suggesting that there will be one interest rate cut next year.

Ahead of the monetary policy announcement, market participants anticipated the Fed to announce a pause in the monetary-easing campaign, following a 25-basis-point (bps) reduction in interest rates.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, strives to regain ground after posting a fresh seven-week low near 98.15 on Thursday.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for November, which will be released on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades broadly calm after rising sharply on Thursday, following the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) monetary policy announcement. In the policy meeting, the SNB kept interest rates steady at 0%, as expected, and reiterated that the bar of the negative interest rate policy is very high. The SNB also stated that the dovish monetary stance would stoke inflation and economic growth in the coming quarters.

(This story was corrected at 07:38 GMT to say in the first bullet point that USD/CHF stays under pressure, and not USD/CAD)

Economic Indicator

SNB Interest Rate Decision

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s four scheduled annual meetings, one per quarter. Generally, if the SNB is hawkish about the inflation outlook of the economy and raises interest rates, it is bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF). Likewise, if the SNB has a dovish view on the economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for CHF.