Fed’s Miran: Fed officials must treat all government policies equally, not only highlighting tariffs

Key Comments

Regulation is a big driver of supply side of the economy, other economists underappreciate that US economy in a pretty good place.

Monetary policy too tight.

Makes US economy more brittle to shocks like recent change with china and rare earths.

Policy has gotten about 1.5 percentage points tighter this year, due to rapid rise in neutral rate.

25 bps point cuts is too slow a pace.

Risk premia not particularly elevated.

Risks that emerged in this last week add urgency to need to cut rates.

Decline in deficit this year is also a factor pushing neutral rate down.

Need rate cuts because of passive monetary policy tightening, and improved inflation outlook.

Would be much better to have government data.

Difficult to track inflation using alternative data.

Fed policy must be forecast-dependent, not data-dependent.

Must be viewed as an honest player, and must not be involved in issues like climate change, racial politics.

Fed officials must treat all govt policies equally, not only highlighting tariffs.

Fed must talk about all government policies, or none of them.”

US Dollar FAQs

What is the US Dollar?

The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

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