• NZD/USD posts modest gains, supported by a softer US Dollar and improved risk sentiment.
• Markets are pricing in nearly 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintains a restrictive tone after its latest rate reduction.

NZD/USD trades slightly higher around 0.5740 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.20% on the day. The pair benefits from renewed downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD), which remains weak as expectations build for further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December.

Investors are increasingly betting on an additional rate cut at the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets assign nearly 87% chances to a 25-basis-point reduction, a move reinforced by recent soft US economic indicators and still-contained inflationary pressures. This outlook weighs on the Greenback and supports the pair.

On the New Zealand side, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25% last week, but policymakers simultaneously signaled that the easing cycle is likely over. The central bank highlighted early signs of stabilization in the economy, reducing the need for additional cuts and providing some support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the USD.

Looking ahead, traders are focused on upcoming Chinese data, particularly the RatingDog Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) due on Wednesday. The market expects a slight slowdown to 52 in November from 52.6 in October. A weaker-than-expected reading, however, could weigh on the NZD, which often acts as a proxy for Chinese economic momentum given New Zealand’s strong trade links with China.