• USD/CHF trades sideways around 0.8060 as the US Dollar steadies following progress on the funding bill in the Senate.
• Markets expect another Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with odds near 63%.
• The Swiss National Bank is likely to keep rates positive as inflation is expected to rise slightly.

USD/CHF holds near 0.8060 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes after the United States (US) Senate approved a measure to extend federal funding through January. This political progress helps ease fears of another potential government shutdown.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, consolidates around 99.60. The agreement between eight Democratic senators and their Republican counterparts would prevent the closure of several federal agencies and unlock the release of key economic data, such as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These figures will be critical for shaping expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets assign a 63% chance to another Fed rate cut at the December meeting. Several Fed officials delivered cautious remarks on Monday. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said the US economy remains “resilient” but noted that inflation is still close to 3%, limiting room for further policy easing. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that policymakers should “keep an open mind” about additional rate cuts, pointing out that productivity gains and slower wage growth are helping sustain a soft landing.

In Switzerland, the Swiss Franc (CHF) remains broadly firm against most peers, supported by recent comments from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel, who ruled out a return to negative interest rates. Schlegel said inflation should “rise slightly in the coming quarters”, justifying keeping rates on hold for an extended period.

Against this backdrop, USD/CHF continues to trade without a clear direction, awaiting fresh macroeconomic signals regarding the US monetary policy path and Swiss inflation trends.