ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that ICE Brent has surged as renewed conflict in the Persian Gulf raises concerns over supply disruptions. They highlight resumed Iranian attacks on regional infrastructure and stress that guidance of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz under “Project Freedom” may only offer temporary relief. The report suggests markets could remain sensitive to further escalation.

Middle East tensions underpin Brent

"We are seeing the first signs of the ceasefire between the US and Iran breaking down amid a re-escalation in the Persian Gulf. ICE Brent rallied 5.8% yesterday to settle above $114/bbl. The US struck a number of Iranian boats."

"In addition, Iran has resumed attacks on infrastructure in neighbouring countries, with the UAE intercepting several Iranian missiles, while Fujairah port was hit by a drone. This port is important for UAE oil exports. It is situated outside the Strait of Hormuz, which allowed oil exports to continue (and, in fact, to increase) despite the war and blockade of the Strait."

"This re-escalation comes at a time when the US has started guiding commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, under “Project Freedom”. Two US-flagged commercial vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz under the plan, according to the US. Clearly, continuation of “Project Freedom” risks further escalation."

"Markets may find some relief today following President Trump’s overnight comments suggesting the conflict could continue for another two to three weeks. However, markets are likely to view this with considerable scepticism, given the recent escalation and the repeated extensions of projected timelines for ending hostilities since the conflict began."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)