ING’s commodities team reports that industrial metals, led by Copper, gained as markets monitored US-Iran talks and shipping risks, while Aluminium stayed under pressure. They highlight unwinding geopolitical premia, sharply reduced speculative net longs in Aluminium, Copper and Zinc, and a stronger Dollar on expectations of higher-for-longer US rates as key headwinds for the broader metals complex.

Copper supported as aluminium lags

"Industrial metals moved higher on Tuesday as investors monitored renewed US-Iran talks and the outlook for US monetary policy. Copper climbed back above $13,300/t, supported by easing concerns over disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz."

"Aluminium remained under pressure, however, as the fading geopolitical risk premium continued to unwind. The metal is on track for its steepest monthly decline since 2008, reversing much of the earlier rally driven by fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East."

"Positioning turned less supportive. LME aluminium speculative net longs fell for a third straight week to 68,814 lots in the week ending 26 June. This is the lowest since May 2021, as short positions rose sharply amid easing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz."

"Copper net longs also declined for a fourth consecutive week to 48,735 lots, while zinc net longs fell for a third week to 28,222 lots, the lowest since October 2025."

"Metals markets are increasingly focused on the Federal Reserve. Expectations that US rates could remain higher for longer are supporting the dollar, creating a headwind for commodities."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)