EUR/USD Price Forecast: Hits one-year low, eyes 1.1350 as bullish USD offsets oversold RSI

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EUR/USD attracts some follow-through sellers for the third straight day amid a bullish USD.
Rising Fed rate hike bets and mixed US-Iran messages push the USD to over a one-year high.
Oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart warrant caution before positioning for further losses.

The EUR/USD pair drifts lower for the third straight day – also marking the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six – and drops to over a one-year low during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1365 area, down nearly 0.15% for the day, and seem vulnerable to slide further amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

Traders have ramped up expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year to combat sticky inflation. Furthermore, mixed US-Iran messages over Tehran's nuclear program keep geopolitical risk premiums in play, lifting the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to a 13-month high. This overshadows the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish stance and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a breakdown below the 1.1500 psychological mark favor bearish traders. Meanwhile, momentum indicators remain depressed. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (14) is lingering in oversold territory near 21, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is still negative, suggesting persistent downside pressure.

That said, the deeply oversold RSI and negative but stabilizing MACD readings hint that sellers may soon face fatigue, making it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for further losses. Any attempted recovery, however, might continue to face stiff resistance near the 100-day SMA at 1.1544 . The EUR/USD pair would need to reclaim this level to ease the current downward pressure and shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		2.16%	1.78%	0.81%	1.58%	2.36%	3.16%	2.19%
EUR	-2.16%		-0.38%	-1.49%	-0.58%	0.20%	0.97%	0.03%
GBP	-1.78%	0.38%		-1.04%	-0.19%	0.59%	1.39%	0.40%
JPY	-0.81%	1.49%	1.04%		0.89%	1.65%	2.47%	1.48%
CAD	-1.58%	0.58%	0.19%	-0.89%		0.77%	1.57%	0.60%
AUD	-2.36%	-0.20%	-0.59%	-1.65%	-0.77%		0.79%	-0.19%
NZD	-3.16%	-0.97%	-1.39%	-2.47%	-1.57%	-0.79%		-0.97%
CHF	-2.19%	-0.03%	-0.40%	-1.48%	-0.60%	0.19%	0.97%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).