Gold plummets below $4,200 as US‑Iran tensions spur hawkish rate bets ahead of US CPI

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Gold attracts heavy follow-through selling on Wednesday amid renewed US-Iran tensions.
Inflation fears fuel bets for more hawkish central banks and undermine the yellow metal.
The USD bulls seem hesitant ahead of the US CPI report, though it fails to lend any support.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends the recent breakdown momentum below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and drops to a fresh low since March 23, further below the $4,200 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Crude Oil prices rise amid renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, fueling inflation fears and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

The US launched self-defence strikes against Iran on Tuesday in retaliation for the downing of a US Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it has targeted an airbase in Jordan hosting US forces, as well as Kuwait and Bahrain, and warned of “a more severe response” if the US aggression continues. Furthermore, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the country's armed forces would not leave any attack or threat unanswered and warned the US to leave the region or face consequences. This keeps geopolitical risk premiums in play and helps Crude Oil prices to hold above a two-month low, touched the previous day.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning nearly a 75% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year amid concerns about sticky inflation due to elevated energy prices. However, the US Dollar (USD) bulls seem hesitant and opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets. The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Fed's policy path, which, in turn, should provide some meaningful impetus to the USD. In the meantime, the fundamental backdrop might continue to exert pressure on the Gold price.

XAU/USD daily chart

Gold seems poised to decline further as ascending channel breakdown comes into play

From a technical perspective, the latest leg down confirms a fresh breakdown below a downward-sloping channel extending from the April swing high. Moreover, the precious metal remains entrenched below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), validating the near-term negative outlook and backing the case for further losses.

Moreover, the daily Relative Strength Index (14) near 28 signals oversold conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator deep in negative territory reinforces prevailing bearish momentum. This leaves the Gold price vulnerable to further declines, towards retesting the March swing low, around the $4,100 mark.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the former channel floor around $4,238, followed by the 200-day SMA near $4,444. A recovery back above the latter would begin to ease the broader downside pressure implied by the dominant descending channel and lift the Gold price further to the channel top near $4,546 and the prior swing reference around $4,634.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.