Commerzbank’s Commodity Research team notes that OPEC, EIA and IEA forecasts range from a balanced Oil market to significant oversupply in 2026. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, Indian reorientation away from Russian barrels, and Chinese reserve buying are seen as key to whether current elevated Brent prices near USD 67.6 remain supported.

Agencies split on surplus outlook

"However, the talks between Iran and the US will be crucial for the further development of oil prices."

"In addition, the US is threatening to seize oil tankers transporting Iranian oil. The situation therefore remains tense and justifies a risk premium for the time being"

"Production losses and Indian oil buyers' search for alternative suppliers to Russia are also causing further tension on the oil market. The country recently purchased around a million barrels per day of Russian oil. "

"All these reasons are supporting oil prices at their current elevated level for the time being."

"If Kazakhstan's oil production returns to December levels, the oil market would be slightly oversupplied in the first half of the year."

"Based on forecasts for call on OPEC and current OPEC production, the IEA continues to expect a massive oversupply of 3.6 million barrels per day this year."

"In contrast, the second half of the year is likely to see a supply deficit."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)