Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Global Head of Markets Strategy Elias Haddad anticipates the Philippine central bank will cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25%, likely marking the end of its easing cycle after 200 bps of reductions since mid‑2024. Swaps markets mostly price this final move, while still-positive real rates are viewed as supportive for the Philippine Peso’s (PHP) uptrend.

End of easing but Peso supported

"Philippine central bank (BSP) is expected to cut rates 25bps to 4.25% (Thursday). At its last December meeting, BSP cut rates 25bps to 4.50% and noted that “the Monetary Board sees the monetary policy easing cycle nearing its end.”"

"BSP has cut rates 200bps since its easing cycle began in mid-2024 and the swaps market price in 70% odds of one final 25bps cut to 4.25% in the next twelve months."

"Still, positive real rates support the uptrend in PHP."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)