Ripple Price Forecast: XRP losses deepen below $1.10 amid subdued demand and on-chain activity

Capital outflows, weak on-chain activity keep XRP under pressure

XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) activity remained muted on Tuesday and Monday, with no flows recorded, according to SoSoValue data. This muted activity suggests a withdrawal of demand rather than a complete loss of conviction in the digital asset. However, capital inflows remain pivotal in absorbing selling pressure and sustaining recoveries.

Cumulative inflows total $1.49 billion, with net assets under management at $1.02 billion, reinforcing investor long-term conviction in XRP.

On-chain activity is weakening, according to Santiment’s data, showing active addresses at 14,500 on Wednesday, down from roughly 31,000 the day before. A wider scope cements the decline, given that network users sending and receiving assets on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) peaked at 43,000 on June 30. If sustained, the low on-chain activity would continue to weigh on demand, further limiting XRP’s upside.

XRP Active Addresses | Source: Santiment

Retail demand for XRP is similarly suppressed, as futures Open Interest (OI) steadies at 213 billion XRP on Wednesday, up only marginally from 2.12 billion XRP the previous day. Nonetheless, CoinGlass data shows a gradual but sustained drop from 2.38 billion XRP on June 23, undermining investor appetite.

Price analysis: XRP eyes short-term support at $1.05

XRP trades at $1.08, extending a corrective phase below its key Exponential Moving Averages. The 50-day EMA at $1.18, together with the 100-day EMA at $1.28 and the 200-day EMA at $1.49, sits overhead and suggests a capped, bearish near-term bias while price remains under this layered resistance zone.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator edges in positive territory and hints at modest bullish momentum that has yet to challenge the dominant overhead structure on the daily chart. At the same time, Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 reinforces a consolidative tone rather than an immediate recovery.

On the topside, initial resistance lies at the 50-day EMA around $1.18, and a sustained move above this level would expose the next barrier at the 100-day EMA near $1.28 before the broader bearish framework defined by the 200-day EMA at $1.49 comes into view. Looking down, the first notable support emerges at the Parabolic SAR level around $1.02, where a break lower would likely revive selling pressure and open the door to further declines. On the other hand, a defensive hold above this marker would allow bulls to keep probing the clustered EMA resistance overhead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs

What is circulating supply?

The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.

What is market capitalization?

Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value.

What is trading volume?

Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.

What is the funding rate?

Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.