Silver price forecast: XAG/USD plunges 10% as US Dollar strengthens

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Silver (XAG/USD) extends losses on Tuesday, falling nearly 10% as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury yields temper demand for safe-haven assets despite fragile market sentiment linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

Silver falls nearly 10%, hovering near one-week lows around $80.
Rising US yields and a stronger Dollar dampen demand for non-yielding assets.
XAG/USD trades near the lower boundary of a rising wedge, increasing the risk of a bearish breakout.

At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $80.68, hovering near its lowest level in over a week.

The pullback suggests markets are weighing escalating Middle East tensions against their potential economic consequences. Disruptions to Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have added a geopolitical risk premium to crude prices.

Higher Oil prices could fuel global inflation pressures and potentially complicate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy easing path. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of precious metals, which tend to perform better in lower-rate environments.

From a technical perspective, the near-term outlook for XAG/USD has turned decisively bearish following a sharp reversal from Monday’s peak near $96.50.

The 4-hour chart shows the metal trading near the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern, increasing the risk of a downside breakout.

Momentum indicators reinforce the negative bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped toward the 30 level, approaching oversold territory and reflecting strong selling pressure.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the signal line in negative territory, with the histogram widening to the downside.

On the downside, a decisive break below the wedge support could intensify selling pressure, exposing the next support near $72.32, corresponding to the February 18 low. A deeper decline could then target the $64.08 region, marked by the February swing low.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-period SMA near $83.20, followed by the 200-period SMA around $88.80. A sustained move above the 200-period SMA would be needed to restore bullish momentum and signal a potential resumption of the broader uptrend.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.