A Reuters survey shows that as gold price forecasts were sharply revised higher, the 2026 gold target price has reached a record high. Geopolitical uncertainty and continued large-scale gold buying by central banks remain the core drivers behind the rise.

A survey of 30 analysts and traders over the past three weeks shows the median forecast for the 2026 average gold price is USD 4,746.50 per ounce — the highest annual projection since Reuters began the survey in 2012 — a notable upward revision from USD 4,275 in the October 2025 survey. In a comparable survey one year ago, the 2026 average gold price forecast was only USD 2,700. Gold’s recent surge has prompted analysts to raise their forecasts multiple times.

The market is entering a special period: the institutional system that has supported global economic and geopolitical stability for decades is facing the most severe test of its legitimacy and resilience in a generation.

On Wednesday this week, gold once rebounded to near the USD 5,100 level after posting its biggest one-day gain in more than 17 years the previous day, stabilizing following the most brutal two-day plunge since 1983. On January 29, gold touched a record high slightly below USD 5,600, but profit-taking and selling were triggered after news that U.S. President Trump nominated Warsh to serve as the next Federal Reserve Chair, sending gold sharply down to USD 4,403 on Monday.

Investors believe the core factors supporting gold in 2026 will remain effective, including geopolitical risk, strong central bank purchases, concerns over the Fed’s independence, rising U.S. debt levels, trade policy uncertainty, and the trend toward de-dollarization — all of which will continue to support the safe-haven asset.

Deutsche Bank said gold’s thematic drivers remain positive, and the underlying logic for investors allocating to gold and precious metals has not changed.

The survey also raised silver price expectations in tandem. The 2026 average silver price is expected to reach USD 79.50 per ounce, far above the USD 50 forecast in the October 2025 survey. Silver’s earlier surge was mainly driven by retail buying and momentum trading, alongside long-term tightness in the physical market, but the physical market’s tight conditions have now begun to ease.

Market Commentary:

Gold is hovering in a choppy range on the four-hour timeframe, with the MACD lines and histogram expanding around the zero axis. Although elevated gold prices may further suppress gold jewelry demand in key Asian markets, central banks will continue to increase gold reserves, promote diversification of reserve assets, and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.