During Thursday’s trading session, the international crude oil market experienced notable volatility. Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that a US delegation will visit Moscow next week to discuss a 28-point negotiation agenda. The market interpreted this as a signal that the peace process could make substantive progress. Putin’s comments suggest that the Russia–Ukraine conflict may be moving toward a political solution, which would ease sanctions pressure on Russian crude exports.

As geopolitical concerns began to fade, US crude inventory data added to the bearish tone. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose by 2.774 million barrels, while the market had been expecting a draw of about 1.3 million barrels.

Russia, Oil, Production

However, as news emerged that OPEC+ is about to convene, market sentiment gradually stabilized during the European session on Thursday. Facing downside pressure on prices, OPEC+ moved to anchor expectations. Eight OPEC+ members—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and the UAE—confirmed that they will adjust their combined production by 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025 and pause their planned output increases in the first quarter of 2026.

OPEC+ will meet on 30 November, and traders are bracing for discussions on how to address the increasingly pressing issue of oversupply. Three OPEC+ sources have indicated that the group is likely to decide to keep its current production policy unchanged at Sunday’s meeting. This expectation has provided a floor for oil prices, as the market believes OPEC+ will step in with supply adjustments if necessary to prevent a sharp collapse in prices.

Short-Term Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil futures are sitting at a critical juncture.

On key technical levels, WTI futures have formed an important support zone near USD 57. This level has been a major support since March 2021 and is viewed as the last line of defense for the bulls.

On the upside, USD 59 is the initial resistance level, while USD 60 is a more important psychological barrier. Only if prices break above these levels is there a chance of testing the stronger resistance around USD 62.

In terms of trend, the crude oil chart shows a classic downtrend pattern—lower highs and lower lows. The major moving averages and trendlines are all sloping downward, indicating that bears still remain in control. If the USD 57 support level fails, the next support comes in near USD 56 (the October low), with the final downside target potentially extending to USD 55.12 (the April low).

How Far Could Oil Fall if a Deal Is Reached?

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven believes that if Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement, oil prices could have around USD 5 of further downside. From current levels, that implies an additional decline of roughly 8%.

Goldman estimates that if sanctions on Russia’s oil sector are lifted, crude prices could fall below USD 50 per barrel. This forecast is based on two key factors: roughly 80 million barrels of Russian crude currently sitting on tankers could be rapidly released into the market, and Russian production would gradually recover.

However, Goldman also points out that an immediate rebound in Russian output is unlikely. A more realistic scenario is a phased recovery. Even under a “fast recovery” case, Russia is not expected to fully return to its pre-war production level of nearly 11.3 million barrels per day until the end of 2027.

Over the longer term, Goldman maintains its year-end 2028 Brent crude target of USD 80 per barrel. It believes that the current cycle of underinvestment in upstream supply, combined with broadly stable global demand, will tighten the market over the long run.