• The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked the OCR in February, continuing to lean into a hawkish stance.
• The IEA would release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves to address Iran war-related shortages.
• The AUD/NZD cross is bullish, according to intraday technical charts, with further upside extension possible.

The AUD/NZD cross is trading near the 1.2100 price region on Wednesday, touching its highest level in 13 years amid market chaos due to the Middle East war between Israel, the US and Iran.

In Australia, inflation remains sticky as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to lean hawkish. The RBA hiked the Official Cash Rate (25 bps) to 3.85% after its February monetary policy meeting. The central bank expects inflation to peak around Q2 2026, then gradually return to the midpoint of the 2–3% target by 2028.

In New Zealand, market analysts expect domestic price pressure to persist longer than previously anticipated, strengthening expectations for future monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Markets are now factoring in several potential interest rate hikes this year, a change from last month when the central bank indicated that the OCR could stay around 2.25% for the entire year.

The central banks’ different paths partially play against the Kiwi. At the same time, the Australian Dollar (AUD) surged following news that the International Energy Agency (IEA) would release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to address shortages related to the Iran war.

Next in line for the cross are the New Zealand Manufacturing Sales for Q4 2025 and Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations for March.

Short-term technical analysis

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/NZD trades at 1.2091. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds well above the rising 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which underscore an improving trend structure on this timeframe. The short-term SMA has turned higher and diverges from the longer one, highlighting strengthening upside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds in overbought territory above 70, retreating from its previous peak.

In the 1-hour chart, AUD/NZD is bullish as price holds well above the rising 20- and 100-period SMAs, which trend higher and signal firm buying pressure. The 20-period SMA around 1.2080 tracks close to spot and acts as nearby dynamic support within the intraday ascent. Momentum remains strong but stretched, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 76, indicating overbought conditions that could slow the pace of gains without yet undermining the upside bias.

Immediate resistance stands at 1.2107, where the horizontal line caps the latest advance and defines the next hurdle for buyers; a clear break higher would open the way for further upside extension. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 1.2080 area, where the 20-period SMA converges with recent price congestion, followed by stronger horizontal support at 1.2020. A deeper pullback would then target 1.1980, where the lower support level aligns with the broader uptrend base.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)