• AUD/USD trades near 0.6920 amid geopolitical uncertainty and caution ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
• Trump’s comments on Iran and Spain weigh on growth-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar.
• China’s upcoming PMI data will be key for the Aussie, while hawkish FOMC Minutes could further limit AUD/USD recovery.

AUD/USD trades under pressure near 0.6920 on Wednesday, even after the US Dollar (USD) held firm amid geopolitical risk and caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to gain traction as investors moved toward the Greenback after United States (US) President Donald Trump said the interim memorandum of understanding with Iran was “over,” adding that he did not want to engage with Tehran.

Trump also added to broader uncertainty after saying he had ordered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to cut off all trade with Spain, calling Madrid a “terrible partner” in NATO. Although the direct impact on AUD/USD is limited, the comments reinforced a risk-off tone across markets, weighing on growth-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie.

On the China side, investors will keep a close eye on the next Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) signals as Australia’s outlook remains closely tied to Chinese demand for commodities. The latest official data showed China’s Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.3 in June, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.2, suggesting activity remains in expansion but remains fragile.

Attention now turns to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the June 16-17 meeting, the first under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. A hawkish tone could keep the USD supported and limit AUD/USD recovery attempts.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6920, retaining a mildly bearish, capped tone as it remains below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6937 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6948. A dense band of nearby horizontal barriers at 0.6925, 0.6932 and 0.6941 reinforces the overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 hints at fading bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at 0.6925, ahead of 0.6932. A sustained break above these levels would expose the 20-period SMA at 0.6937, followed by the 0.6941 hurdle and the 100-period SMA at 0.6948. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6907, where a failure would likely extend the corrective slide toward lower levels on the four-hour horizon.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)