BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, with markets not pricing cuts until at least Q4. The report states that recent core inflation and labor market gains justify the status quo, though renewed downside inflation surprises could bring easing back onto the agenda.

Steady stance with conditional easing risk

"In Canada, a steady BoC should be market-neutral unless the statement tilts materially more cautious or more hawkish than expected."

"The BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.25%."

"Markets are expecting no change at least until Q4, but easing could be on the agenda with any renewed downside surprises to inflation."

"The recent pick-up in core inflation and labor market improvements suggest the status quo is adequate, but as Governor Tiff Macklem noted, the BoC is prepared to “take action” if the situation changes on inflation expectations."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)