ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight tightening conditions in Copper, as Chile posts its lowest monthly output in almost nine years and Ivanhoe cuts production guidance at Kamoa‑Kakula. They also note shifting speculative positioning on the LME, with net longs in Copper and Zinc reduced even as Aluminium longs increase on tight global supply.

Supply constraints offset softer positioning

"In base metals, on the supply side, Chile posted its lowest monthly copper output in almost nine years, underscoring persistent structural constraints. February production fell to 378,554 tonnes, down 8.5% m/m and 4.8% y/y, according to INE data, as declining ore grades and underperformance at key mines weighed on output. The last time production was this low was March 2017, when strikes halted operations at BHP’s Escondida mine."

"Chile, which accounts for around a quarter of global mine supply, has now seen output decline on an annual basis for seven consecutive months."

"Elsewhere, Ivanhoe trimmed production guidance for the Kamoa‑Kakula mine, lowering its 2026 outlook to 290-330kt from 380-420kt and cutting its 2027 forecast to 380-420kt from 500-540kt, as it adopts a more conservative mining plan following last year’s flooding."

"According to the latest LME COTR report, speculators increased net long positions in aluminium by 1,285 lots in the week ending 27 March, snapping six consecutive weeks of declines and lifting total net bullish bets to 82,987 lots."

"In contrast, net longs in copper fell by 2,302 lots to 38,729, while zinc net longs declined by 4,393 lots to 40,171 after two weeks of gains."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)