ING's commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlights that Copper is trading above $14,000/t and close to record highs as supply-side risks dominate. They stress tight refined markets, low inventories outside the US, and heightened sensitivity to demand. While macro uncertainty and high Oil prices weigh on consumption, speculative positioning has turned strongly net long, supporting prices in the near term.

Tight fundamentals and speculative support

"Copper extended gains above $14,000/t in Wednesday’s session, trading close to its all‑time high of $14,527.50 set in late January. Supply-side risks continue to dominate price action. Firmer spot demand in China and tightening conditions across refined markets are underpinning prices."

"The move above $14,000/t highlights just how tight the copper market has become. Low inventories outside the US and ongoing disruptions across key producing regions leave prices increasingly sensitive to any incremental demand growth."

"That said, current price levels appear to be driven more by supply concerns than underlying consumption. Elevated oil prices and tight financial conditions are likely to continue weighing on demand, leaving copper vulnerable to a pullback should supply disruptions ease or arbitrage-driven flows normalise."

"Market focus will likely remain on inventory trends, Chinese demand signals, and the extent to which geopolitical disruptions continue to constrain refined metal supply."

"Positioning has also become more supportive. The latest COTR report shows speculative net long positions in copper rose for a second consecutive week, increasing by 611 lots to 60,576 lots in the week ending 8 May, the highest level since December 2025."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)