Crypto Weekly Radar: US-Iran ceasefire and talks in focus, $117M token unlocks as Bitcoin eyes $80,000 breakout

US-Iran ceasefire under pressure as Tehran plans to skip peace talks

The US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire on Tuesday, while peace talks hang in the balance, renewing tensions in the Middle East. Although the second round of peace talks is scheduled for Tuesday, the Iranian regime said on Monday that it has no plans to attend.

Iran’s adamant stance not to attend the negotiations comes after US forces attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged shipping vessel on Sunday. The absence of a diplomatic solution to the conflict could trigger a fresh rally in Oil and Gas prices, further weighing on global markets.

Iran has again blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route, used to move at least a fifth of the world’s Oil and Gas supplies, in retaliation for the US seizing the Iranian-flagged vessel.

The West Texas Intermediary (WTI) Oil price is at $87 at the time of writing on Monday, up from the daily low of $85.17 and last week’s trough at $78.88.

Potential supply shock ahead of $117 million token unlocks

The cryptocurrency market could experience high volatility as various networks release tokens, thereby increasing the circulating supply. Defi Llama data shows that the week commenced with $3.8 million in total unlocks on Sunday, led by Canton at $3.38 million.

LayerZero will account for the majority of the unlocks on Monday at $36.36 million out of the cumulative $35.53 million. The unlocks will be significantly reduced on Tuesday, with nearly $126,000 in fresh supply.

On Wednesday, the release will be primarily concentrated in Kaito, valued at $7.19 million, followed by Limited Exchange at $1.01 million and Celestia at roughly $8 million. Meanwhile, the largest unlocked will fall on Thursday, totaling $47.7 million.

As for Friday, the release will total $8.85 million, led by Initial with $8.38 million. The week will close with unlocks from Avalanche and Celestia, totaling $15.5 million.

Crypto token unlocks | Source: Defi Llama

Bitcoin bulls test breakout strength toward $80,000

Bitcoin trades at $75,029, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $71,910. The price sits well above the broken downward trendline, which now serves as a deeper structural floor near $64,139. Still, price action is pressing into the 100-day EMA at $75,279, which represents immediate overhead supply, while the 200-day EMA, higher up at $82,882, defines a more distant cap to the advance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 59 on the daily chart, leaning higher without reaching overbought territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, suggesting bullish momentum remains in play despite nearby resistance.

On the topside, a daily close above the 100-day EMA at $75,279 would open the way toward the next resistance at the 200-day EMA around $82,882. On the downside, initial support is seen at the rising 50-day EMA at $71,910, with the previously broken downward trendline near $64,139 offering a more substantial medium-term support zone if a deeper correction unfolds.

Meanwhile, market sentiment has continued to advance since last week, with the crypto Fear & Greed Index reading 29 on Monday, up from 27 the previous day. Last week, sentiment was generally stuck in extreme fear territory, with a reading of 12. As sentiment improves, demand for crypto assets could surge in tandem, increasing the chances of a steady recovery.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs

What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.

What are altcoins?

Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.

What are stablecoins?

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.

What is Bitcoin Dominance?

Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)