Dow Jones futures gain on easing risk aversion, lower oil prices

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Dow Jones futures rise, up by 0.81%, above 45,800 during European hours, ahead of the United States (US) regular market open on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.78% and 0.54% to near 6,440 and 23,260, respectively, at the time of writing.

Dow Jones futures rise as hopes grow that Trump may end the Iran conflict.
Market Sentiment improved after Fed’s Powell said long-term US inflation expectations remain anchored.
Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth Management says the 10% declines are a typical correction.

US stock futures advanced as easing risk aversion and lower oil prices lifted market sentiment, driven by rising expectations that US President Donald Trump could bring the Iran conflict to an end. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump indicated to aides he may stop the campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. However, analysts consider the recent oil price decline a short-lived response, emphasizing that any sustained drop would require a full restoration of shipping flows through the strait.

Meanwhile, market sentiment improved following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated that long-term US inflation expectations remain well anchored despite escalating Middle East tensions. Powell also stressed that the Fed’s current policy setting gives policymakers room to evaluate the broader economic effects of the Iran conflict.

During Monday’s regular US session, the Dow Jones edged up 0.11%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.39% and 0.73%, respectively. The S&P 500 is now down just over 9% from its recent closing peak, largely due to weakness in technology stocks, which dropped more than 1%. Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth Management noted that the pullback appears to be a typical market correction rather than an unusual development, adding that declines of around 10% are common in longer-term market cycles, reported by CNBC.

Dow Jones FAQs

What is the Dow Jones?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

What is Dow Theory?

Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

How can I trade the DJIA?

There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.