EUR/CAD slips toward 1.6150 due to Oil supply concerns, ECB decision awaited

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EUR/CAD pares its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 1.6160 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross weakens as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens on Oil supply concerns driven by rising geopolitical tensions.

EUR/CAD depreciates as the Canadian Dollar gains on Oil supply concerns amid rising geopolitical tensions.
The US halted sanctioned Venezuela Oil tanker traffic and seeks tighter Russia energy sanctions to support Ukraine peace talks.
The Euro gained as easing Eurozone inflation reduced prospects of further ECB easing.

The United States (US) has ordered a complete halt to maritime traffic involving sanctioned Oil tankers traveling to and from Venezuela. At the same time, Washington is pushing for stricter sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to support peace negotiations over Ukraine, fueling worries about possible disruptions to global supply.

The Euro (EUR) advanced against its major peers as easing inflation in the Eurozone (EZ) reduced the likelihood of further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB officials have indicated that additional rate cuts may not be necessary in 2026. Most economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to leave rates unchanged through 2026 and 2027, although the forecast range for the latter year was wide at 1.5%-2.5%.

Attention now turns to the ECB’s December policy decision later in the day, which is widely expected to be a non-event, with President Christine Lagarde likely to keep the Deposit Facility unchanged at 2% and throughout next year.

ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said earlier this month that she is comfortable with market expectations that the central bank’s next policy move will be a rate hike. Schnabel added that, barring shocks, interest rates are at appropriate levels and noted that the economy has proven far more resilient than expected.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.