EUR/USD falls toward 1.1850 due to safe-haven demand

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EUR/USD depreciates after opening from a gap up, trading around 1.1860 during the Asian hours on Monday. Traders will likely observe Germany’s IFO - Business Sentiment Index later in the day.

EUR/USD pulled back after opening from a gap up on Monday.
The US Dollar rises on safe-haven demand after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods.
Traders are likely to keep an eye on Germany’s IFO Business Sentiment Index, due later in the day.

EUR/USD depreciates after opening from a gap up, trading around 1.1860 during the Asian hours on Monday. Traders will likely observe Germany’s IFO - Business Sentiment Index later in the day.

The EUR/USD pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) gains on safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to the recent comments from US President Donald Trump over the weekend. Trump warned he would impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Ottawa were to strike a trade deal with China, the BBC reported over the weekend.

In response, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sunday that Canada has no plans to pursue a free trade agreement with China, clarifying that his recent understanding with Beijing only reduced tariffs in a few sectors that had been hit recently.

However, the Greenback came under pressure amid rumors of a possible intervention in FX markets to support the Japanese Yen (JPY). According to Bloomberg, traders said the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had carried out a so-called rate check with major banks, requesting indicative exchange rates, a step widely viewed as a signal that authorities may be preparing to facilitate another intervention.

Eurozone flash PMI data pointed to a soft services sector in January, with the index slipping to 51.9, below both December’s reading and market expectations. Earlier releases from Germany were more encouraging, as the Services PMI beat forecasts and remained in expansionary territory, while the Manufacturing PMI improved but stayed below the expansion–contraction threshold.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.