GBP/USD runs out of gas after BoE hawkish hold ahead of Friday data deluge

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GBP/USD rallied 0.96% on Thursday, settling near 1.3600 after a choppy session that saw cable test the 1.3455 area in the European morning before catching a sharp bid through the New York afternoon.

The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% in an 8-1 hawkish split, with Huw Pill alone calling for a 25 basis point hike.
Friday's ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 53, with the Prices Paid sub-index seen at 80 amid oil-fed cost pressure.
Next Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls anchors a US data-dominated week, with the UK calendar largely silent.

GBP/USD rallied 0.96% on Thursday, settling near 1.3600 after a choppy session that saw cable test the 1.3455 area in the European morning before catching a sharp bid through the New York afternoon. The daily candle left a long lower wick from the morning low, with price stalling close to the 1.3600 round figure into the late session.

The Bank of England (BoE) left its main Bank Rate at 3.75% in an 8-1 vote, with chief economist Huw Pill the lone dissenter pushing for a 25 basis point hike. Governor Andrew Bailey leaned into second-round inflation risks during the press conference, signaling that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is prepared to act pre-emptively if energy-driven price pressure begins feeding into wages. On the US side, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 3.5% YoY in March, in line with forecasts, while preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth printed at 2% against the 2.3% consensus, a softer undertone that weighed on the Dollar through the New York afternoon.

Friday's session brings the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (ISM Manufacturing PMI), with consensus at 53 and the Prices Paid sub-index forecast at 80, a level that would point to sticky cost pressure if confirmed. BoE chief economist Huw Pill also speaks during the European morning and could lean more hawkishly than Bailey did on Thursday, given his vote for a hike. Beyond Friday, the UK calendar is effectively empty next week, with a bank holiday on Monday and no top-tier domestic releases. The US slate is the inverse, headlined by ISM Services PMI on Tuesday, the ADP Employment Change print on Wednesday, and culminating in next Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is likely to set the near-term direction for cable.

GBP/USD, 4-hour chart

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