MUFG’s Teppei Ino notes USD/JPY is encountering strong topside resistance and potential intervention risks just below 160. He expects renewed Yen (JPY) selling if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and energy imports resume, while higher import prices could push the Bank of Japan (BoJ) toward a June rate hike. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is seen on hold, limiting further Dollar weakness.

Yen pressured by energy and policy

"The USD/JPY is facing topside resistance and intervention concerns just below 160."

"However, we expect yen-selling pressure to increase if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as Middle East tensions ease, given that the resumption of energy imports would generate real-demand yen selling."

"The BoJ is also likely to consider a rate hike at its June meeting as higher import prices accelerate domestic inflation."

"The FOMC is expected to stay on hold for now, but further dollar weakness is likely to be limited depending on developments in the Middle East and inflation trends."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)