Japanese Yen weakens as hawkish Fed bets drive USD higher

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USD/JPY extends its gains for the sixth successive day, trading around 158.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) gains value against other currencies because the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is shifting toward a more aggressive stance on inflation.

USD/JPY rises as traders expect the Fed to adopt a more aggressive stance to fight inflation.
CME FedWatch tool suggests that markets see a 48% chance of a December rate hike, up from 14% last week.
Stronger Japan’s producer inflation is fueling market expectations that the BoJ will raise its historically low interest rates.

Several Fed officials recently emphasized that controlling inflation is their top priority, even suggesting that further interest rate hikes could be necessary if price pressures persist. Financial markets have sharply increased the likelihood of a December rate hike to nearly 48%, up significantly from just 14% a week prior, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, the Greenback is benefiting from its status as a safe-haven asset due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. The United States (US) and Iran remain far from an agreement to end weeks of fighting and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

US President Donald Trump escalated tensions by publicly warning Iran to make progress or face new consequences. Because the Strait remains effectively closed, global oil prices are continuing to climb, which places a heavy economic burden on countries that rely heavily on energy imports. Global investor anxiety is heightened further by warnings from Chinese leader Xi Jinping to President Trump that Taiwan could trigger direct clashes between their two economies.

Meanwhile, Japan is facing its own economic hurdles as a result of these global pressures. Stronger-than-expected producer inflation data has fueled market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will need to adjust its historically low interest rates. Highlighting this urgency, central bank board member Kazuyuki Masu advocated for raising policy rates as quickly as possible, warning that the ongoing war is creating persistent inflation risks that the country must address.

ING’s Min Joo Kang expects Japan’s economy to maintain similar growth to the previous quarter, with first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) seen rising 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. The war-related energy shock is judged to have a limited impact on trade and growth but a more visible effect on inflation. ING forecasts April inflation at 1.8% year-on-year, helped by subsidies that cap broader price pressures.

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.