Even with potential US sanctions easing, Russian Oil output is unlikely to surge, as OPEC+ production limits and near-capacity operations constrain any significant increase, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

OPEC+ caps hinder significant output gains

"However, even if US sanctions were eased, a significant increase in Russian Oil supply would not be expected, as Russia is bound by OPEC+ production targets. It is conceivable that Russian Oil production could close the current gap to the agreed OPEC+ production volume."

"According to the latest figures from the IEA, this would mean an increase of 200,000 barrels per day, while OPEC and S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates put the increase at around 100,000 barrels per day."

"As Russia is likely already producing close to its capacity limit, a significant increase in production is hardly possible if OPEC+ decides to further raise production targets next year. According to IEA estimates, Russia's production capacity is already below the agreed production level."