Silver tumbles as energy-driven inflation fears keep rate outlook elevated

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Silver (XAG/USD) falls toward $56.70 at the time of writing on Thursday, down 1.85% on the day. The white metal comes under selling pressure as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran drive energy prices higher, reviving concerns about persistently elevated global inflation.

Silver falls nearly 2% as renewed geopolitical tensions weigh on investor sentiment.
Higher Energy prices reinforce expectations of persistent inflation and tighter monetary conditions.
Softer US inflation data continues to curb the most hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.

Higher Oil prices are fueling expectations that inflation could remain above central bank targets for longer. This scenario prompts investors to anticipate tighter monetary conditions for an extended period, an environment that is generally unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Geopolitical concerns intensified after US President Donald Trump threatened to expand attacks on Iranian infrastructure if Tehran refuses to return to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, the suspension of crude loading operations at several Iraqi terminals following a drone-related incident has heightened fears of global Oil supply disruptions, providing additional support to energy prices.

At the same time, recent US inflation data is helping to limit Silver's downside. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June showed a further moderation in price pressures, prompting markets to scale back expectations of additional monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a Fed interest rate hike at the July meeting has fallen to around 10%, down from above 30% a week ago. The decline in hawkish expectations is limiting downside pressure on precious metals, even as energy-driven inflation concerns continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.