United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD closed almost unchanged near 1.2924, but short-term momentum has turned slightly lower. Leang expects intraday price action to stay within 1.2900–1.2935, while over the coming weeks the risk of a break below 1.2890 is increasing, with another firm support at 1.2875 and strong resistance at 1.2955 capping the topside.

Downward bias with range constraints

"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we indicated that USD “is likely to trade in a range between 1.2900 and 1.2935.” While USD traded within a higher range than expected (1.2913/1.2938), it closed largely unchanged at 1.2924 (+0.04%). While there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, this is likely to lead to USD trading in a lower range of 1.2900/1.2935 rather than a sustained decline."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have expected USD to trade in a range since early last week. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (02 Jul, spot at 1.2960), we stated that “we continue to expect range-trading, but we are revising our expected range higher to 1.2890/1.2990.” However, USD has been trading nearer to the lower end of the range since then. Downward momentum has ticked up, and the risk of USD breaking below 1.2890 is increasing. That said, there is another firm support at 1.2875. On the upside, a breach of 1.2955 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that USD is likely to continue to trade in a range."

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