USD/CAD holds flat as surging Oil, hawkish Fed expectations offset

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USD/CAD trades around 1.3840 at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on Monday after briefly advancing earlier in the day.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3840 on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day after an earlier attempt to rebound.
Rising Oil prices support the Canadian Dollar and cap further upside in the pair.
Escalating tensions between the US and Iran revive inflation concerns and reinforce hawkish Fed expectations.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3840 at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on Monday after briefly advancing earlier in the day. The pair struggles to extend its rebound, caught between support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) from surging Oil prices and expectations of higher interest rates in the United States (US).

Oil prices have surged at the start of the week, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gaining nearly 7% on Monday at the time of press. The move comes as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran intensify following the collapse of diplomatic talks over Iran’s nuclear program. Concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supply, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are fueling the rally in Crude Oil prices.

This rise in Oil prices supports the Loonie due to the importance of the energy sector in Canada’s economy. As Canada is the largest Crude Oil exporter to the United States, higher Oil prices tend to strengthen the Canadian currency, limiting gains in the USD/CAD pair.

At the same time, the US Dollar (USD) remains supported. The collapse of negotiations between Washington and Tehran has revived risk aversion in financial markets, leading to heightened concerns about inflation and stronger demand for the US currency. Moreover, the sharp rise in energy prices has rekindled inflation concerns, which could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer than previously expected.

These expectations have pushed US Treasury yields higher, providing additional support to the Greenback. In this context, the USD/CAD pair remains caught between two opposing forces: stronger Oil prices supporting the Canadian Dollar and expectations of a more hawkish Fed, keeping the pair broadly stable at the start of the week.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.29%	0.22%	0.27%	0.02%	0.35%	0.21%	0.16%
EUR	-0.29%		-0.09%	0.00%	-0.26%	0.04%	-0.08%	-0.09%
GBP	-0.22%	0.09%		0.09%	-0.20%	0.13%	-0.03%	-0.04%
JPY	-0.27%	0.00%	-0.09%		-0.31%	0.03%	-0.11%	-0.09%
CAD	-0.02%	0.26%	0.20%	0.31%		0.37%	0.21%	0.15%
AUD	-0.35%	-0.04%	-0.13%	-0.03%	-0.37%		-0.12%	-0.10%
NZD	-0.21%	0.08%	0.03%	0.11%	-0.21%	0.12%		-0.02%
CHF	-0.16%	0.09%	0.04%	0.09%	-0.15%	0.10%	0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).