USD/JPY Price Forecast: Consolidates above 160.50, two-year high amid intervention risks

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The USD/JPY pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the early European session on Thursday and trades just above mid-160.00s, near the highest level since July 2024, touched the previous day.

USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase near its highest level since July 2024, set on Wednesday.
The JPY bears turn cautious amid intervention fears, capping the upside amid a modest USD downtick.
The technical setup makes it prudent to wait for some consolidation before placing fresh bullish bets.

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said during a regular press conference earlier today that the government is ready to respond appropriately to exchange-rate moves at any time. The comments revived fears about a potential intervention, holding back traders from placing fresh bearish bets on the Japanese Yen (JPY). This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to 1.00%, or the highest since 1995, on Tuesday. This, however, is far below the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The persistently wide rate differential between the US and Japan continues to fuel the JPY carry trade, keeping the USD/JPY pair elevated above the 160 psychological mark, and favors bullish traders.

From a technical perspective, the recent solid rebound from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a subsequent strength beyond the 159.50 horizontal barrier keep the broader uptrend intact. Moreover, momentum indicators stay constructive, with the Relative Strength Index hovering in the low 60s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holding just above zero.

The aforementioned setup hints that bullish pressure is moderating but not yet exhausted and that dips remain supported rather than signaling a reversal. That said, the near-term risk profile favors consolidation at elevated levels while leaving the door open for another push higher in the broader trend.

Meanwhile, any meaningful corrective decline is likely to find decent support and attract buyers at the 200-day EMA near 156.23 to protect the prevailing bullish structure. As long as the USD/JPY pair holds above this dynamic floor and momentum gauges avoid a sharp deterioration.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		1.33%	1.16%	1.14%	2.70%	1.98%	1.64%	2.15%
EUR	-1.33%		-0.16%	-0.18%	1.36%	0.67%	0.28%	0.82%
GBP	-1.16%	0.16%		0.00%	1.52%	0.81%	0.46%	0.98%
JPY	-1.14%	0.18%	0.00%		1.53%	0.76%	0.46%	0.94%
CAD	-2.70%	-1.36%	-1.52%	-1.53%		-0.67%	-1.05%	-0.54%
AUD	-1.98%	-0.67%	-0.81%	-0.76%	0.67%		-0.36%	0.16%
NZD	-1.64%	-0.28%	-0.46%	-0.46%	1.05%	0.36%		0.50%
CHF	-2.15%	-0.82%	-0.98%	-0.94%	0.54%	-0.16%	-0.50%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).