USD/JPY Price Forecast: Continues to hold key support level around 152.00

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The USD/JPY pair trades 0.27% higher to near 153.70 during the European trading session on Wednesday.

USD/JPY rises to near 153.70 as hopes of a higher Japanese fiscal deficit weigh on the Japanese Yen.
Japan’s flash Q4 GDP growth came in at 0.1%, lower than estimates of 0.4%.
Investors await FOMC Minutes, and Japan’s National CPI data for January.

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.27% higher to near 153.70 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its major peers on expectations that Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will announce big spending plans in the fiscal budget to boost economic growth.

Theoretically, a higher fiscal deficit weakens the appeal of the domestic currency.

The speculation for Japan PM Takaichi to unveil mega spending plans has bee strengthened by the slower-than-expected Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. The data showed on Monday that the Japanese economy grew at a moderate pace of 0.1% against estimates of 0.4%. However, Japan’s GDP has returned to growth after declining 0.7% in the third quarter of 2025.

Going forward, the major trigger for the Japanese Yen will be the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, which will be published on Friday. National CPI ex. Fresh Food is estimated to have risen at an annualized pace of 2%, slower than 2.4% in December.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades marginally higher ahead of the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the January policy meeting at 19:00 GMT.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY gains to 153.57 during Wednesday's European session. Price holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 154.73, indicating a downside bias and positioning the moving average as immediate resistance.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.35 reflects a bearish tilt, underscoring fading upside momentum.

A daily close above the 20-day EMA at 154.73 would ease pressure and allow a corrective bounce towards February 9 high of 157.66. Failure to reclaim it would keep rallies capped and the pair offered. Momentum would deteriorate if the RSI slide toward 30. A downside move by the price below the January 27 low of 152.00 would lead to a further decline towards the psychological level of 150.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Japan’s Cabinet Office on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Japan during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Japan’s economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.