USD/JPY Price Forecast: Defends 200-SMA support on H4; bulls seem hesitant near 159.00

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The USD/JPY pair once again shows some resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and struggle to capitalize on the strength beyond the 159.00 mark.

USD/JPY edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through.
Hormuz risks undermine the JPY and lend support to spot prices amid a modest USD recovery.
The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.

Despite the optimism over Iran diplomacy, economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz hold back traders from placing bullish bets around the Japanese Yen (JPY). This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) recovery from its lowest level since early March, turns out to be another factor lending some support to the USD/JPY pair. However, the optimism over continued US-Iran peace talks and diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) caps the upside for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair retains a mildly bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 158.30-158.25 horizontal support. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is slightly negative and flat below the zero line, suggesting waning bearish pressure rather than a strong directional impulse for now. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 hints at only modest downside momentum. This, in turn, warrants caution before positioning for further gains.

Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart near 158.76 might continue to protect the immediate downside. A sustained break would weaken the constructive tone and open the door to a deeper correction. As long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, dips are likely to attract buyers, though the lack of bullish conviction implies that the near-term trajectory will have to be defined on the basis of forthcoming price action rather than the existing mixed technical setup.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.07%	0.01%	0.13%	0.06%	-0.15%	0.03%	0.07%
EUR	-0.07%		-0.06%	0.07%	-0.02%	-0.15%	-0.04%	-0.00%
GBP	-0.01%	0.06%		0.11%	0.09%	-0.10%	-0.01%	0.05%
JPY	-0.13%	-0.07%	-0.11%		-0.06%	-0.21%	-0.12%	-0.07%
CAD	-0.06%	0.02%	-0.09%	0.06%		-0.13%	-0.04%	-0.01%
AUD	0.15%	0.15%	0.10%	0.21%	0.13%		0.10%	0.14%
NZD	-0.03%	0.04%	0.00%	0.12%	0.04%	-0.10%		0.04%
CHF	-0.07%	0.00%	-0.05%	0.07%	0.00%	-0.14%	-0.04%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).