WTI Oil holds above $98.50 as concerns of a US invasion on Iran loom

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The price of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate Oil (WTI) has pulled back from three-week highs at $101.40 per barrel on Monday’s Asian session opening times, but downside attempts remain contained above $98.50, as US President Donald Trump maintains a mixed position on Iran.

WTI Oil prices remain contained near $100.00 amid mixed messages from Trump.
Rumours about US-Iran negotiations emerge, with the option of a ground invasion of Iran's Kharg Island on the table.
The irruption of the Iran-backed Houthis widened the conflict over the weekend.

Trump affirmed in an interview at the Financial Times on Monday that the option of seizing Iran’s Kharg Island remains on the table, which, according to the Republican, would mean that “we had to be there for a while”.

Before that, the US President offered a glimmer of hope, reiterating that there are direct and indirect negotiations with Iran and that the new leaders of the Islamic Republic are “very reasonable”. Trump also affirmed that Iran let pass 20 “big boats of Oil” through the Strait of Hormuz in a sign of respect.

Iran, on the other hand, maintains a hard stance. Iranian authorities have blamed Trump for talking about negotiations while preparing an invasion, which, they threatened, would turn into a bloodbath for the US.

Pakistan offers to hold negotiations

Comments from Pakistani authorities affirming that the country will soon hold negotiations between the US and Israel contributed to pushing prices lower earlier on the day. WTI’s downside attempts, however, remain limited, as the situation in the area, rather than improving, is becoming increasingly complex.

The war escalated further over the weekend, as the Iran-backed Houthi militias entered the conflict, launching missiles at Israel over the weekend, and threatening to close the Strait of Bab el Mandeb, which would trigger a further disruption in Oil traffic and boost prices well above current levels.

Meanwhile, Kuwait has reported an Iranian attack on a power and water desalination plant that has killed an Indian worker, causing significant material damage to the building.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.